США и РФ свежие новости на 29-12-2021

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Вторжение России на Украину может произойти при соблюдении пяти условий, однако в настоящее время такое развитие событий маловероятно. Об этом заявил геополитический аналитик Юджин Чаусовский в статье для журнала Foreign Policy.

По его мнению, при принятии решения военного вмешательства Москва опирается на пять переменных факторов: первопричина, поддержка на местах, ожидаемый военный отклик, техническая возможность и относительно низкие ожидаемые политические и экономические издержки. Если какое-либо из условий не выполняется полностью или отсутствует, то Россия вряд ли решится на атаку даже на постсоветском пространстве, уверен Чаусовский.

Он также выразил мнение, что Россия в эпоху правления президента Владимира Путина, не склонна к риску и «применяет силу вполне консервативно». При этом эксперт не исключил альтернативных действий со стороны Москвы. В качестве примера он назвал гибридную войну, тайную деятельность, кибератаку, наращивание военной мощи в других местах и дезинформацию. К последней Чаусовский также отнес предупреждения о возможном вторжении.

Ранее представитель Кремля Дмитрий Песков прокомментировал данные о якобы готовящемся вторжении России на Украину. Россия фиксирует информационную кампанию, исходящую от Запада, цель которой — представить Москву как угрозу процессу урегулирования на Украине, заявил пресс-секретарь российского президента Дмитрий Песков.

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